| Economic Forum |
China's economy expanded by 11.3% in the second quarter of this year from a year earlier despite Beijing's efforts to slow down the pace. The figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics highlights the failure of measures by Beijing to rein in expansion and avoid overheating. It is likely to dismay Chinese leaders who began clamping down more seriously after data showed the economy expanded by 10.2% in the first quarter. The first-quarter number was later revised to 10.3%. For the first half of the year, the economy expanded by 10.9%. The Chinese economy is now growing by the fastest pace in roughly a decade. The fear is that an overheated economy is producing excessive investment that could lead to industrial overcapacity, falling profits and, eventually, a crash caused by mass bankruptcies. Many Chinese and foreign economists expect authorities will be forced to raise bank-interest rates for a second time this year, and issue more aggressive instructions to banks to curb lending. Reducing lending is the best way to bring down investment in a bank-dominated economy. The figures showed that fixed-asset investment increased by 30% in the first half of this year on a national basis. Industrial output for the month of June was up 20%. Retail sales for the month expanded 14% from the same month a year earlier. Authorities have been comforted by the fact that inflation is still low. However, the most recent figure shows that it is creeping up, with the consumer-price index in June up 1.5% from a year earlier after rising 1.4% in May. In the first half of this year, banks dished out 87% of the whole year's loan target set by the central bank. Yet few economists believe Beijing is prepared to tackle the problem of easy money by allowing the yuan to appreciate more steeply.
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